1. Introduction
There is now strong scientific evidence that climate change is happening and being accelerated by human activity. The world is getting warmer. Global surface temperature was 1.09°C higher in 2011-2020 than 1850-1900 and global mean sea level increased by 0.20m in 1901-2018 (IPCC, 2021). Climate risks and extreme events have wide-ranging impacts across multiple dimensions of the economy. Climate change is a threat to socio-economic development, thus combating its negative impacts is vitally important for all countries. In addition, climate change presents a wide range of opportunities for countries to invest in green growth and low-carbon economy.
Reaching net zero emissions by 2050 is the inevitable development pathway of the world in the future and is realized mainly through a robust low-carbon transition and a low-carbon development pathway which has been established since the 26th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP26). By transitioning to a low-carbon economy built on energy efficiency, renewable energy, and sustainable production and consumption patterns, countries can combat climate change while at the same time strengthen the economy competitiveness and bring socio-economic co-benefits.
Putting the energy sector on a pathway to 1.5°C to achieve net zero emissions by 2050 as committed at COP26 is critical. Transition to a low-carbon energy pathway is widely acknowledged as an inevitable trend in the future through increasingly shifts away from carbon emitting fossil fuels, enhancement of energy efficiency, renewable energy, and low-carbon technologies. Converting energy from fossil fuels to clean and renewable energy sources is a great opportunity for countries to promote economic restructuring towards sustainability, seize huge opportunities to enhance the economy competitiveness as well as take advantage of trade and investment cooperation for a sustainable future.
Over the past years, the energy sector has made a positive contribution to the country's socio-economic development in Vietnam. Economic growth requires secure and affordable supply of energy to all economic sectors. Viet Nam has a variety of domestic primary energy sources such as coal, oil, natural gas and hydro power which play an important role in ensuring energy security for economic development in the past two decades. However, the energy sector in Viet Nam have encountered many challenges that needs to be addressed to secure the supply of energy sources in the long term while at the same time reducing negative environmental impacts and controlling greenhouse gas emissions.
This paper presents an overview of energy transition in the context of achieving 2050 net zero emission target, analyses opportunities and challenges of energy transition in Vietnam and proposes some policy implications for a sustainable and just energy transition in Vietnam in the near future.
2. Literature Review and Theoretical Framework
There are currently different concepts of net zero emissions used by different actors with different purposes. In some cases, specific terms (e.g. net zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions or carbon neutrality) are used to distinguish between different emission targets (e.g. in terms of the coverage of GHGs - all GHGs or carbon dioxide only). In other cases, terms are used interchangeably (e.g. climate neutrality vs. carbon neutrality). Differences in terminology reflect different interpretations of the concept of net zero emissions. Net zero emission is a state where the sum of all anthropogenic emissions and removals is zero (IPCC, 2021). Net zero emission targets are being defined in a variety of ways - the most important aspect from a global geophysical perspective being whether they cover all GHGs or carbon dioxide (CO2) only (Rogelj et al. 2015, cited in UNEP, 2021).
In the past few years, "net zero" has been launched to a central pillar of efforts to support the long-term temperature goal of the Paris Agreement adopted by 196 Parties at COP 21 in Paris, on 12 December 2015 and entered into force on 4 November 2016. The Paris Agreement marked the incorporation of the net zero concept into international policy. The idea of achieving net zero emissions was enshrined in Article 4.1 of the 2015 Paris Agreement. The inclusion of “net zero” in the Paris Agreement and the rationale for reaching net zero emissions was further supported by the 2018 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report which highlighted that to limit warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels with no or limited overshoot, global CO2 emissions should reach net zero around midcentury (IPCC, 2018). Net zero emissions are reiterated in the 2021 Working Group I contribution to the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report (IPCC, 2021). These could be seen to provide a common foundation for the cascade of net zero commitments put forward by countries and non-state actors in recent years. As of June 2022, at least 1,180 entities have a net zero target of some description, including 128 countries and self-governing territories, 235 cities, 115 states and regions, and 702 publicly listed companies from the Forbes Global 2000. The spotlight falls on companies (65 percent), regions (84 percent) and cities (80 percent) that are yet to pledge net zero targets. National government targets (including the European Union and Taiwan) represent 91 percent of global GDP (PPP), up from 68 percent in Taking Stock 2021, accounting for 83 percent of global GHG emissions, up from 61 percent and representing 80 percent of the global population, up from 52 percent (Net Zero Tracker, 2022).
Energy plays a critical role to a modern economy to heat and light homes, to help travel and to power businesses. Primary energy sources include fossil fuels, renewable energy, and nuclear energy. Secondary energy sources include electricity, heat and fuels (gasoline and refined oil products). Fossil fuels are known as carbon-based fuels from fossil hydrocarbon deposits, including coal, oil, and natural gas (IPCC, 2021). Renewable energy is derived from natural processes that are replenished constantly (IEA, 2002). Nuclear energy is a form of energy released from the nucleus, the core of atoms, made up of protons and neutrons (IEA, 2022).
Putting the energy sector on a pathway to 1.5°C to achieve net zero emission target by 2050 as committed at COP26 is critical and energy transition plays a vital role. Energy transition is a significant structural change in an energy system regarding supply and consumption. Energy transition generally refers to the global energy sector’s shift from fossil-based systems of energy production and consumption, including oil, natural gas and coal to renewable energy sources (e.g. wind and solar). Currently, a transition to sustainable energy (mostly renewable energy) is underway to limit climate change.
The current energy transition is driven by a recognition that global greenhouse-gas emissions must be drastically reduced. Climate watch data shows that energy production and consumption are responsible for 76% of annual human-caused greenhouse gas emissions as of 2018. A rapid energy transition to very-low or zero-carbon sources is required to mitigate the effects of climate change since coal, oil and gas combustion account for 89% of CO2 emissions. This process of energy transition involves phasing-down fossil fuels and re-developing whole systems to operate on low-carbon energy sources.
The shift towards low-carbon energy systems is taking place in all industry sectors and across all regions around the world. The world needs to give up fossil fuels, particularly coal, and move to a lower-carbon energy sources that embraces renewables and nuclear power. In addition, energy transition has to address the three daunting challenges of security, affordability and sustainability, known as the Energy Trilemma, which challenges governments, cities and organizations alike. It demands solutions that can tackle all three problems together. Addressing one dimension of the trilemma in isolation will make the others worse. The trilemma means that policy should never focus on one single aspect and should look at the three challenges in a balanced way. Lower-carbon energy solutions such as wind, solar, geothermal, hydro, marine and nuclear power, net zero energy schemes, micro grids, and heating all have a part to play in addressing the Energy Trilemma.
Energy transition to a low-carbon and net-zero CO2 energy systems entail a substantial reduction in overall fossil fuel use, minimal use of unabated fossil fuels, and increased use of Carbon Capture and Storage in the remaining fossil system; enhanced electricity systems that emit no net CO2; widespread electrification of the energy system including end uses; increased energy carriers such as sustainable biofuels, low-emissions hydrogen, and derivatives in applications less amenable to electrification; enhanced energy conservation and efficiency; and greater physical, institutional, and operational integration across the energy system (IEA, 2021; IRENA, 2022; IPCC, 2022). The most appropriate strategies depend on national and regional circumstances, including enabling conditions and technology availability.
Accelerating the energy transition is an urgent and challenging task. It will require farsighted choices, discipline, wise investments and enhanced international cooperation on technology development and finance. Aligning the energy sector on a pathway to 1.5°C can also help address other important global concerns such as energy price volatility and energy security as well as bring economic and social benefits to consumers and businesses around the world.
3. Method
The study uses secondary data and information which were collected from a variety of sources, including reports from Vietnam’s Government Statistics Office, Vietnam’s Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment, books, journals, papers, and research reports of individuals and organizations related to the research topic.
A desk-based approach combined with statistical, descriptive, and comparative methods are applied to address the research question.
4. Results
4.1. Energy supply and consumption in Viet Nam
Over the past years, Vietnam has achieved remarkable socio-economic achievements. The energy sector has made a positive contribution to the country's socio-economic development. Economic growth requires secure and affordable supply of energy to all economic sectors. The energy sector must be able to attract the capital required to expand energy infrastructure and to secure the supply of energy sources in the long term while at the same time reducing negative environmental impacts and controlling greenhouse gas emissions.
Table 1. Total primary energy supply in Vietnam in 2010-2019
Unit: KTOE
|
2010
|
2015
|
2016
|
2017
|
2018
|
2019
|
1. Fossil fuels
|
39,145
|
53,796
|
55,578
|
56,005
|
67,031
|
78,536
|
74.6%
|
80.3%
|
80.4%
|
78.5%
|
81.7%
|
85.1%
|
Coal
|
14,730
|
26,957
|
26,507
|
26,131
|
35,541
|
45,360
|
28.1%
|
40.3%
|
38.3%
|
36.6%
|
43.3%
|
49.1%
|
Crude oil and oil products
|
16,099
|
17,288
|
19,522
|
20,973
|
22,481
|
23,987
|
30.7%
|
25.8%
|
28.2%
|
29.4%
|
27.4%
|
26.0%
|
Natural gas
|
8,316
|
9,551
|
9,549
|
8,901
|
9,009
|
9,189
|
15.8%
|
14.3%
|
13.8%
|
12.5%
|
11.0%
|
10.0%
|
2. Renewable energy
|
5,763
|
9,832
|
10,873
|
13,202
|
13,412
|
12,796
|
11.0%
|
14.7%
|
15.7%
|
18.5%
|
16.3%
|
13.9%
|
3. Non-commercial energy
|
7,196
|
3,251
|
2,601
|
2,081
|
1,457
|
891
|
13.7%
|
4.9%
|
3.8%
|
2.9%
|
1.8%
|
1.0%
|
4. Export/Import of electricity
|
386
|
84
|
114
|
61
|
139
|
107
|
0.7%
|
0.1%
|
0.2%
|
0.1%
|
0.2%
|
0.1%
|
Total
|
52,490
|
66,964
|
69,166
|
71,349
|
82,039
|
92,329
|
100%
|
100%
|
100%
|
100%
|
100%
|
100%
|
Source: Institute of Energy (2020)
Fossil fuels are the backbone of the total primary energy supply (TPES) in Viet Nam. The share of fossil fuel supply increased from 74.6 percent of TPES in 2010 to 85 percent in 2019. This is followed by renewable energy (11 percent of TPES in 2010 to 13.9 percent in 2019). Coal plays an important role in TPES as the share of coal grew from 28 percent (in 2010) to 49 percent (in 2019) (Table 1). This trend is expected to continue in the future as the domestic supply of hydro power and biomass seems to be unable to meet the increasing demand.
Table 2. Final energy consumption in Vietnam in 2010-2019
Unit: KTOE
|
2010
|
2015
|
2016
|
2017
|
2018
|
2019
|
1. Fossil fuels
|
24,747
|
27,094
|
30,924
|
31,307
|
35,777
|
38,835
|
58.6%
|
54.0%
|
59.9%
|
59.1%
|
61.0%
|
61.8%
|
Coal
|
9,893
|
11,457
|
9,393
|
9,207
|
12,612
|
15,362
|
23.4%
|
22.8%
|
18.2%
|
17.4%
|
21.5%
|
24.4%
|
Oil products
|
14,361
|
15,636
|
20,576
|
21,210
|
22,264
|
22,554
|
34.0%
|
31.2%
|
39.8%
|
40.0%
|
38.0%
|
35.9%
|
Natural gas
|
493
|
1.458
|
955
|
890
|
901
|
919
|
1.2%
|
0.0%
|
1.8%
|
1.7%
|
1.5%
|
1.5%
|
2. Non-commercial energy
|
7,196
|
4,064
|
2,601
|
2,081
|
1,457
|
891
|
17.0%
|
8.1%
|
5.0%
|
3.9%
|
2.5%
|
1.4%
|
3. Renewable energy
|
2,990
|
3,823
|
4,304
|
4,572
|
4,787
|
5,013
|
7.1%
|
7.6%
|
8.3%
|
8.6%
|
8.2%
|
8.0%
|
4. Electricity
|
7,278
|
10,986
|
13,832
|
15,007
|
16,619
|
18,095
|
17.2%
|
21.9%
|
26.8%
|
28.3%
|
28.3%
|
28.8%
|
Total
|
42,211
|
50,169
|
51,661
|
52,967
|
58,639
|
62,833
|
100%
|
100%
|
100%
|
100%
|
100%
|
100%
|
Source: Institute of Energy (2020)
In term of the structure of final energy consumption, fossil fuel consumption (coal, oil products and natural gas) accounted for 58.6 percent in 2010 and increased to 61.8 percent in 2019, followed by renewable energy (7.1 percent in 2010 to 8 percent in 2019) (Table 2). Generally, fossil fuel consumption accounts for a large proportion of the energy consumption in Viet Nam.
4.2. Greenhouse gas emissions in Viet Nam
The total amount of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Viet Nam has increased over the years as a result of fast economic growth. In 2016, GHG emissions in energy sector account for 65 percent, followed by industrial processes (14.6 percent), agriculture-forestry and land use (13.9 percent) and waste sector (6.5 percent) (Table 3). It can be seen that GHG emissions from energy and industrial processes accounted for the largest shares and also increased at the fastest growth. Therefore, cutting GHGs emissions from energy and industrial processes plays a critical role. In addition, it is necessary to increase the carbon absorption through nature-based solutions.
Table 3. GHG emissions in Viet Nam in 1994-2016 (MtCO2e)
Sectors
|
1994
|
2000
|
2010
|
2013
|
2014
|
2016
|
Energy
|
25.6
|
52.8
|
141.1
|
151.4
|
171.6
|
205.8
|
Agriculture
|
52.4
|
65.1
|
88.3
|
89.4
|
89.7
|
83.5
|
Industrial processes
|
3.8
|
10.0
|
21.2
|
31.7
|
38.6
|
46.1
|
LULUCF
|
19.4
|
15.1
|
-19.2
|
-34.2
|
-37.5
|
-39.5
|
Waste
|
2.6
|
7.9
|
15.4
|
20.6
|
21.5
|
20.7
|
Total
|
103.8
|
150.9
|
246.8
|
259.0
|
284.0
|
316.7
|
Source: MONRE (2014), MONRE (2017), MONRE (2020)
The country’s rapid economic growth, urbanization, and industrialization over the last 30 years have been powered by a coal-dependent energy supply that creates significant GHG emissions. MONRE data showed that emissions from energy sector went up the most rapidly, from 25.6 MtCO2e (in 1994) to 151.4 MtCO2e (in 2013) and reached 205.8 151.4 MtCO2e (in 2016) due to the rapid increase in energy demand. Energy sector emits the largest proportion of GHG emissions in Vietnam, accounting for 65.5 percent of total GHG emissions in Vietnam in 2016.
Viet Nam is one of the most GHG-intensive economies in East Asia (measured as emissions per unit of output) in Asia, similar to Indonesia’s, but much higher than China’s or the Philippines’. In absolute terms, Vietnam’s GHG emissions - 364 million tonnes of CO2e in 2018 - amount to no more than 0.8 percent of global emissions, on par with Malaysia, Thailand, France, and the United Kingdom. GHG emissions per capita were 3.81 tonnes CO2e in 2018, up from 0.79 tonnes in 2000, but still relatively low by regional and global standards (World Bank, 2022).
4.3. Climate change policies and Net Zero Emission target in Viet Nam
The Government of Viet Nam has made remarkable efforts to develop and implement national laws, strategies, and action plans to promote a low-carbon development pathway, reduce vulnerability to the impacts of natural disasters and climate change, and enhance green growth and sustainable development, notably the Environmental Tax Law (2010), Law on Efficient Use of Energy (2010), Law on Natural Disaster Prevention and Control (2013), the Law on Meteorology and Hydrology (2015), the Law on Environmental Protection (2020), the Party’s Resolution 24/NQ-TW dated June 3, 2013 on climate change response, natural resource management and environmental protection, the Party’s Resolution No. 08/NQ-CP dated January 23, 2014 on Action Plan to implement Resolution No. 24 -NQ/TW dated June 3, 2013 of the 11th Party Central Committee, National Green Growth Strategy (2012, 2021), National Climate Change Strategy (2011, 2022), and the National Action Plan for the implementation of the 2030 Sustainable Development Program. Climate change response efforts and initiatives in Vietnam have also been reflected in Vietnam's Agenda 21 on Sustainable Development (2004), the National Strategy and Plan on Disaster Management and Mitigation (2001-2020, 2021-2030). Response to climate change has also been included in the Socio-Economic Development Strategy (2011-2020, 2021-2030).
Viet Nam also fulfil international commitments on climate change. Vietnam signed the UNFCCC in 1992 and ratified it in 1994; signed the Kyoto Protocol in 1998 and ratified it in 2002. Vietnam submitted National Communications to UNFCCC (2003, 2010, 2019) and Biennial update reports (2014, 2017, 2020). INDC (Intended Nationally Determined Contribution) was submitted in 2015. Recently, Vietnam signed the Paris Agreement on the Climate in April, 2016; approved the Paris Agreement in November, 2016 and updated its NDC in 2020.
At the UN Climate Change Conference in Glasgow in November 2021 (COP26), the Viet Nam Prime Minister demonstrated the country’s strong commitments to reforms at COP26, including an ambitious target of reducing emissions to net zero by 2050. Also at COP26, Vietnam joined more than 100 countries in pledges to halt deforestation by 2030 and to slash methane emissions by 30 percent from 2020 levels by 2030. Vietnam has further committed to ending all investment in new coal power generation, scaling up deployment of renewable energy, and phasing out coal power by the 2040s. These commitments go beyond those included in the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) update submitted in 2020 under the UNFCCC.
The National Climate Change Strategy to 2050, approved at the Decision No. 896/QĐ-TTg of the Prime Minister dated July 26, 2022, sets the overall objective to proactively and effectively adapt to climate change, reduce GHG emissions to net zero emission by 2050 and deal with vulnerabilities and risks caused by climate change. The Strategy also aims to make active and responsible contributions to the international community in protecting the Earth's climate, take advantage of opportunities from climate change response to transform growth models, as well as improve the competitiveness of the economy, contributing to the realization of the developed and high-income country target by 2045. Emphasis is placed on mobilizing resources from organizations, enterprises, individuals, and international resources for climate change combat, developing financial mechanisms and carbon markets, as well as promoting investments towards a low-carbon economy. Achieving net zero emission target by 2050 is legalized in the National Climate Change Strategy to 2050.
5. Discussions and Conclusion
5.1. Policy implications
Laws, policies, and strategies for energy development have been enacted over years in Viet Nam, for example, the Electricity Law (2004, revised 2012), the Law on Petroleum (1993, 2000, 2008, 2013), Decision No. 1264/QD-TTg dated October 1, 2019 on National Electricity Development Plan for the period 2021-2030, Decision No. 2068/QD-TTg dated November 25, 2015 approving Vietnam's Renewable Energy Development Strategy to 2030 with a vision to 2050, the National Target Program on Energy Saving and Efficiency (2006-2010, 2012-2015, 2019-2030) and the Resolution No. 55-NQ/TW dated February 11, 2020 on the Orientation of the National Energy Development Strategy of Vietnam to 2030, with a vision to 2045.
In general, Viet Nam has a variety of domestic primary energy sources such as coal, oil, natural gas and hydro power which play an important role in ensuring energy security for economic development in the past two decades. Viet Nam will have great opportunities in energy transition to move forwards a low-carbon economy.
First, the Government of Viet Nam has expressed a high political commitment to the international community in achieving the net zero emissions target by 2050 through ambitious policies to reduce GHG emissions. Developing a low-carbon economy and green growth has been included in the national socio-economic development strategies and plans over the last many years. Reducing GHG emissions and increasing carbon sequestration have become mandatory targets in socio-economic development in Vietnam. For example, Vietnam's National Energy Development Strategy to 2030, with a vision to 2045 sets a target that the proportion of renewable energy in the total primary energy supply will reach 15-20 percent by 2030; 25-30 percent by 2045. The Draft National Electricity Development Plan in the 2021-2030, with a vision to 2045 (Power Master Plan VIII) sets the orientation to gradually reduce dependence on coal-fired power and at the same time rapidly increase the share of renewable energy in electricity generation.
Second, achieving net zero emissions is an opportunity for Viet Nam to restructure its economy. Viet Nam has set a target to be a developed, high-income country by 2045. To achieve this, Viet Nam needs to accelerate its economic growth to increase per capita income and narrow down the income gap with other countries in the world. Applying advances in science, technology and innovation, implementing digital transformation, building a digital economy and digital society will be priorities of economic development in the coming period. In order to achieve net zero by 2050, Viet Nam needs to transform its economic structure towards increasing the share of industry, especially processing and manufacturing to GDP. In addition, a major recognition in the latest socio economic development strategy (2021-2030) is that the country’s economic transformation will greatly depend on better management of natural capital. Like most low-income countries, Viet Nam has relied heavily on its natural resources for economic growth, using its extensive stocks of agricultural, forest, and mineral resources to drive development over the past two decades. Viet Nam will need to shift from an arguably wasteful approach to economic expansion - as producers often use more land, water, wood, energy, and other resources per unit of output than in other countries - to a development model that manages natural capital more sustainably (World Bank, 2022).
Third, aligning climate finance flows with a low-emissions and climate-resilient development roadmap is the global goal identified in the Paris Agreement. As a result, international resources (climate finance, climate-friendly technologies) to support the net zero emissions target could be increasing in the coming time. Being a country responsible for and proactive in implementing international commitments on climate change approved at COP21, Vietnam has a great opportunity to attract international support for net zero target, especially in energy transition.
However, the energy sector in Viet Nam have been facing many challenges for several reasons as follows.
First, Viet Nam is heavily dependent on fossil fuels in the total primary energy supply (TPES). Fossil fuels accounted for 74.6 percent (in 2010), 80.4 percent (in 2015) and 85 percent (in 2019) of the TPES. In terms of fossil fuel structure, coal plays an important role as the share of coal in the TPES increased from 28.1 percent (in 2010) to 40.3 percent (in 2015) and 49.1 percent (2019). Power plants consume the most coal in the country, followed by cement, fertilizer and chemical industries. The proportion of crude oil is continuously decreasing (30.7 percent in 2010 to 26 percent in 2019). The total domestic coal consumption in 2015 was about 43.8 million tons, of which power plants consumed 23.5 million tons (53.6 percent) and industry consumed 17.6 million tons (40 percent) (MOIT & DEA 2017). The share of coal used for power generation is expected to increase from 32 percent in 2014 to 54 percent in 2030 while around 60 percent of the volume of coal used for power generation will be imported (World Bank and Ministry of Planning and Investment, 2016). In addition, the transition to fossil fuels energy is a major cause for the increase in GHG emissions in Vietnam. Over the past decade, Viet Nam recorded the highest GHG emissions in the ASEAN region. Total GHG emissions per capita in Viet Nam increased by 3 times over a 10-year period while carbon intensity per GDP increased by 48 percent (ERENA and DEA, 2019).
Second, Viet Nam witnesses a rapid growth in final energy consumption, especially oil products and electricity. The two most energy-consuming sectors in Viet Nam are industry (47 percent in 2019) and transportation (27 percent in 2019). Oil products account for the largest share of final energy consumption (34 percent in 2010 to 36 percent in 2019) (Table 2). The most notable change in the final energy consumption mix in Vietnam is the continued increase in the share of electricity consumption in the total energy consumption which reflects a shift from fossil fuel to electricity. The share of electricity consumption occupied 17 percent in 2010 and increased to 22 percent in 2015 and 29 percent in 2019 (Table 2). Vietnam's electricity system is mainly based on hydro power, accounting for 38 percent of total electricity capacity in 2019, followed by coal power (34 percent) and gas power (18 percent) (World Bank, 2018). Meanwhile, most of the hydro power potential for medium and large hydro power plants will be fully exploited and the current capacity needs to be increased further in the near future, at the same time, domestic coal is not enough to supply the coal power plants (MOIT & DEA, 2017). An important point is that the national power in the coming time will still be dependent on coal-fired thermal power, in which coal is imported which poses risks of environmental pollution and energy security.
Third, renewable energy is underdeveloped. The share of renewable energy accounts for a small proportion of the TPES in Vietnam. Renewables saw an increased share in TPES, from 11 percent in 2010 to 14.7 percent in 2015 and 16.3 percent in 2018 and fell to only 13.9 percent in 2019 despite the strong growth of solar power this year. Hydropower is the core of renewable energy in Viet Nam. The potential for hydropower development has basically been fully exploited; at the same time, small hydropower plants have caused many impacts on the environment and biodiversity. Although the development of renewable energy sources has grown tremendously in the past three years from 2018 to 2020, it also encounters problems with the transmission system and grid safety. Unsynchronized development of solar energy and power transmission system has caused waste of recourses. In addition, renewable energy development has not been planned with a long-term vision and many renewable energy projects have to be supplemented and adjusted in the implementation phase, especially wind and solar energy. Some of renewable energy resources such as tidal, geothermal, biofuel, space ones have not been developed.
Fourth, Viet Nam has become an energy importer since 2015. Energy exports in Viet Nam decreased in recent years with the export volume of 12 thousand KTOE in 2015 (equivalent to 40 percent compared to 2009). Meanwhile, energy imports increased in 2015 after a few years of decline. The trend of net imports of coal, crude oil, and oil products has turned Viet Nam into an energy import-dependent country with a net import rate of 5 percent in 2015. Viet Nam mainly imported coal and oil products. Coal imports in 2016 were of more than 10 million tons and are expected to increase in the coming years (MOIT & DEA, 2017). Although this energy import level is not high compared to other countries in the region and the rest of the world, this is a remarkable signal in the formulation of energy policy in Viet Nam in the coming time. On average, import growth was at 14.4 percent per year in 2011-2019 (Institute of Energy, 2020). The contribution of energy export is gradually decreasing which threatens energy security in the coming time.
Fifth, energy consumption is inefficiently. The national target program on efficient use of energy in the 2012-2015 set a target of saving 5-8 percent of the total energy consumption in the 2012-2015 compared to the forecasted energy demand in the National Electricity Development Plan for 2011-2020 with a vision to 2030 (equivalent to 11-17 million TOE in the period 2012-2015). MOIT & DEA (2017) showed that the actual savings was 5.65 percent, equivalent to 10,610 KTOE. The energy intensity in Viet Nam is higher than that in some countries such as Japan, Germany, Thailand, China and Korea. The energy intensity per unit of GDP in Viet Nam is twice as high as in the world.
Policy implications for a just and sustainable energy transition in Viet Nam in the coming time include: (i) facilitate rapid renewable energy deployment by improving the regulatory framework, (ii) build an attractive investment landscape for private capital, both foreign and domestic, to finance energy transition projects, (iii) improve energy system resilience by investing in the power grid’s capacity and expanding energy-storage facilities for renewable energy, (iv) accelerate implementation of energy efficiency plans including effective pricing policies, (v) reform of electricity tariffs, (vi) develop natural gas to power as a transition fuel and promote consumer participation and (vii) build the local workforce required for the energy transition, paying particular attention to the livelihoods of vulnerable populations.
5.2. Conclusion
Governments around the world are currently engaged in efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels to avert the worst effects of climate change. At the international level, countries have committed to emission reduction targets as part of the 2015 Paris Agreement on the Climate and most recently is the net zero commitment at COP 26. At national level, cities and businesses have taken up their separate commitments to reduce emissions. These efforts often focus on replacing fossil fuels with non-carbon solutions, increasing energy efficiency and using low-carbon technologies.
The energy industry is global, affecting both people and planet, and its transformation will affect all those using or producing energy - i.e. almost everybody require a just transition. Investors, insurers, energy providers and users, as well as society at large, will expect this energy transition to be conducted in a safe and sustainable way. Achieving the 2050 net zero target by accelerating the deployment of renewables and taking vigorous action to raise energy efficiency is a no-regrets strategy that meets climate objectives. It also offers the benefits of a just and inclusive energy transition, such as universal energy access, job creation, poverty reduction, and a fair sharing of adjustment benefits and burdens.
Assoc. Prof. Dr. Vu Thi Hoai Thu
thuvh@neu.edu.vn
National Economics University, Hanoi, Vietnam
(International Conference ICSEED2023)
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